It is now generally accepted that infections peaked on or around 19th March and deaths peaked on 8th April, which is almost seven weeks ago.
A viral infection has a life cycle: a beginning, middle and end. Left to its own devices, a virus spreads until it starts to run out of the new hosts that are essential for its survival, whereupon its virulence starts to reduce, continuing to decline until it peters out.
The relevance of a virus’ life cycle can be highlighted on these charts, courtesy of the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center and Worldmeters, which show global SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 deaths:
You can clearly see that both infections and deaths had already started to flatten out before lockdown measures were introduced. You can clearly see that both curves started to rise again once lockdown was imposed, i.e. lockdown was the cause of the ensuing rise in infections and deaths. This is something we have been highlighting for the past couple of months, identifying that SARS-CoV-2 is all about viral dosage and viral load.
Confining people in close proximity to each other for sustained periods of time turned low viral dosage (well within the innate immune system’s capacity to deal with it) into high viral dosage, making people sick whereupon they went into hospitals, where high viral dosage and high viral load combined, making the sick sicker – and sadly in many instances leading to their deaths – and making front line medical staff sick, in a self-fueling cycle of upping viral dosage upping viral load upping viral dosage, and so on.
Currently, 39.1% of all deaths are attributable to just five European countries – United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, France and Belgium – rising to 67.7% when you add in the United States. Each of these countries imposed lockdown depsite the fact that 1. SARS-CoV-2’s infection cycle was already past its peak and 2. lockdown would likely exacerbate the situation.
We have also been consistent proponents of the scientific studies that show the majority of the United Kingdom had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 at 19th March. These are proper, actual studies performed by grown-ups rather than the ones conjured out of magic beans by Neil ‘2+2=510,000’ Ferguson on a Sinclair ZX81 using code written by Nicolae Ceaușescu. These are credible studies based upon the actual data from the real-time evolving situations in the United Kingdom and Italy, not fantasy predictions of a discredited deathmonger (for more information on Neil ‘Mystic Meg is my inspiration’ Ferguson’s previous comedy predictions, read this previous commentary) and they point to the fact that the United Kingdom was within the percentage of population range at which herd immunity is attained before lockdown was imposed.
Social distancing was based upon the earlier view of Public Health England and associated bodies in January 2020 that the then-novel coronavirus was a high consequence infectious disease. In an irony of Buck Murdoch proportions, Public Health England et al downgraded SARS-CoV-2 on 19th March, stating it was no longer considered high consequence. Yes folks, that’s right: once again, before lockdown was imposed. It is interesting that 19th March crops up again as a key date in this government pantomime. Sadly at that point the whole population should have been shouting ‘It’s behind you!’ to the villain because, by then, SARS-CoV-2 was passing its peak and the United Kingdom was leaving the virus in its wake. Instead, as a result of the government’s completely incorrect response, COVID-19 deaths have continued to mount up (both suggested and actual) over the subsequent weeks, the vast majority of which were unnecessary and avoidable.
When you factor in the additional non-COVID-19 deaths from cancelled medical procedures; untreated existing medical conditions; untreated heart attacks & strokes caused by the fearfest where individuals were too frightened to go into hospital or didn’t want to be a burden; excess winter deaths and finally the suicides that have happened so far and will be with us for years to come, it is clear that more people have died from non-COVID-19 causes than from COVID-19.
If lockdown had not happened, we would be in a better position than we are now on all counts; mortality, socially, economically and financially.
Lockdown and social distancing are causes of the problem, not remedies.