SARS-CoV-2 Continues To Weaken.
Despite the propaganda, mutant killer of death and apparent overwhelmed hospitals, SARS-CoV-2 continues to attenuate, or weaken, globally. We monitor the data constantly and since August have been highlighting that both active and closed cases have been attenuating and continue to attenuate. As we illustrated at the end of August, Active cases were 99% mild / 1% serious or critical and Closed cases were 95% recovered or discharged and 5% deaths. By the end of November, these figures had fallen to Active 99.4% mild / 0.6% serious or critical and Closed 97% recovered or discharged / 3% deaths. So despite the ‘second killer wave of death’ both active and closed cases improved, as the virus continued to attenuate. Except in the UK were the mortality rate and total deaths continued to rise.
In early January we illustrated the active cases had fallen to 99.5% mild / 0.5% serious or critical, with the closed cases unchanged. The current figures are:
Source: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center and Woldmeters, @ 0500UTC 16/02/21.
Active cases have fallen to 99.6% mild / 0.4% serious or critical and Closed cases are unchanged. So despite the mutant killer virus of death, huge rises in infections, increases in new cases etc., serious or critical cases have fallen to 0.4%. While only a 10 basis points reduction from 5th January to now, it is equivalent to a 16.7% fall in serious or critical cases (0.6% – 0.5%) and the 20 basis points reduction from 30th November to now is equivalent to a 33.3% fall in serious or critical cases (0.6% – 0.4%).
So how on earth do you reconcile a one-third reduction in serious/critical cases and no change in the death rate with the truly shocking UK mortality rate? The answer is government strategy and government and NHS response.
As we have explained on numerous occasions starting back in April, lockdown kills, with the most recent assessment here. This is now made even worse by the fact that S-VoC / N501Y infections increase during lockdown as substantiated by Kolz et al, 2020.
UK vs Worldwide Average.
Throughout this insanity, the UK has always had one of the highest mortality rates on the planet on a population-adjusted basis as well as a mortality rate many times the worldwide average. Back in mid-April we highlighted that the UK mortality rate;
“is 11.3x higher than the worldwide average death rate”.
In June, the situation hadn’t improved when we highlighted that;
“The UK has the second highest death rate on the planet…the UK also has the second highest total deaths on the planet…The UK death rate is a truly horrifying 11.2x the worldwide average.”
The current worldwide average mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 is 0.0259% (again, @ 0500UTC 16/01/21). This is 3.86 times lower than the average mortality rate for seasonal or winter flu.
The current UK mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 is 0.128%. This is 4.94 times higher than the worldwide average mortality rate. Thank you NHS.
When assessing the response to a global pandemic (remembering of course that a pandemic is defined by geographical spread not by infectiousness, infectivity, disease severity or mortality) it is appropriate to use the global average as the baseline: positive strategy & response improves a country’s position and vice versa. On this basis, not only do you then have the situation where you can use the worldwide average as the relative baseline – is the UK doing better or worse than Burkina Faso (what do you think?) – but also as the absolute baseline.
Applying the worldwide average mortality rate (that’s 219 countries & territories and 2 merchant vessels) to the UK, the total UK deaths would be 17,632. So akin to an average year for seasonal or winter flu, or a pretty mild year for excess winter deaths. Instead it is 87,295.
87,295 deaths is the 5th highest total deaths figure on the planet and the 8th highest mortality rate on the planet:
All mortality figures and rates accurate @ 0500UTC 16/01/21 (source: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center and Worldmeters).
Just How Bad The UK Government And NHS Response Has Been.
Therefore, despite every resource having being given over to the NHS, treatments & operations for every other medical condition having been postponed or cancelled to make the NHS COVID-only and the months of ineffective controls, the UK is still where it has been for 10 months now: one of the most dangerous places on the planet, where following government advice such as wearing a non-surgical face covering or going into the deathfactories (formerly known as NHS hospitals) makes you 5 times more likely to die.
See if you can work out the pattern in these population-adjusted mortality rates for other countries:
Mortality Rate 25% Lower Than The UK – UK Mortality Rate Therefore 1.33x Higher
Sweden (apologies to all the Guardian readers who were so willing Swedes to die en masse, in order to be able to show that Swedish common sense and basic intelligence wasn’t right), Armenia, Brazil, Romania, Poland, Bolivia, Moldova, Iran and Argentina.
Mortality Rate 50% Lower Than The UK – UK Mortality Rate Therefore 2x Higher
South Africa, Ireland (relevant due to their near identical latitude, ambient temperature & humidity levels), Ukraine, Tunisia, Albania and French Polynesia,
Mortality Rate 66% Lower Than the UK – UK Mortality Rate Therefore 3x Higher
Guadeloupe, Honduras, Palestine and Iraq.
Mortality Rate 75% Lower Than the UK – UK Mortality Rate Therefore 4x Higher
Eswaniti, Azerbaijan, Guatemala, Turkey and Lebanon.
Mortality Rate 80% Lower Than The UK – UK Mortality Rate Therefore 5x Higher
Libya, El Salvador, Morocco, Kyrgyzstan, Guyana and Kazakhstan.
Mortality Rate 90% Lower Than The UK – UK Mortality Rate Therefore 10x Higher
India, Philippines, Egypt, Nepal, Algeria and Uruguay.
Mortality Rate 95% Lower Than The UK – UK Mortality Rate Therefore 20x Higher
Djibouti, Afghanistan, Gambia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sudan, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Syria, Yemen, Haiti, Lesotho and 107 other countries, plus the MS Diamond Princess and MS Zaandam.
If the pattern isn’t clear then consider the other countries in the top ten highest mortality rates: all are in Europe. The USA is at position 11 currently. We first highlighted the above average mortality rates in Europe at the beginning of April, returning to it again later that month. In addition, we first highlighted in July the relevance of systematic vitamin D deficiency in those European countries worst affected.
With regard to the UK, we have been consistent critics of the NHS clinical response and it provides absolutely no pleasure to have been proven right.
The killer virus of death, the most deadly virus ever in the history of the world, some mysterious new chimera that kills on sight (while politely following one-way arrows; being able to accurately judge 2m; tell the time; count to 4 in a shop at any one time; infect strangers but not family member; infect non-key workers but never key workers and to killer mutate on-demand like a trained dolphin in a tank) caused healthcare professionals to act like rabbits caught in headlights.
Well-known, Eminently Treatable Conditions Were Ignored.
It was – and remains – simple: treat what you see.
Check for viral & bacterial pneumonia; query acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and check for pulmonary oedema in those who have been taking NSAIDs (such as Ibuprofen), i.e. in those where infection hasn’t been overcome in the upper respiratory tract and has subsequently infected the lower respiratory tract. Check for cytokine storm (including SIRS & CARS), in particular levels of interleukin 6 as a marker of disease severity. Cross-reference medical records to check for those with renin-angiotensin system issues around hypertension and the dysfunction of the ACE2→ Angiotensin1-7→ Mas / ACE→ angiotensin II→ AT1 receptor axes.
The NHS only had one task to perform: don’t let those who come into hospital die. In this respect, it has failed spectacularly.
Countries without developed healthcare systems and lacking advanced medicines have done 4x, 5x, 10x and even 20x better than the UK. Without billions of pounds of additional resource, without jeopardising the treatment of patients with every other medical condition and without the virtue-signalling, circus sea lion-inspired hand clapping (oh darh-ling, we do clap louder than everyone else in our road don’t we? – yah, we are so much better than them).
The NHS should be a national treasure, something to be cherished and seen as a privilege for all. All the hospital trusts scandals from recent decades could have been forgotten; the dead babies, mistreated elderly and ignored mental health signals all forgiven. All the failures to learn the lessons from ‘lessons will be learned’ as unaccountable, double-chinned, non-competent trust bosses get full-pension early retirement while parents bury babies missing their organs, all could have been set aside. Just don’t muck this one thing up.
Instead, the NHS became politicised as part of the Propaganda Ministry. Hard-working nurses & doctors were overruled by those very same trust bosses and ‘leadership teams’ who haven’t a clue but will happily take the salary.
As SARS-CoV-2 continues to attenuate worldwide, UK deaths continue to rise. After more stringent UK restrictions are implemented, UK deaths continue to rise.
The government strategy and government & NHS response are causes of the rising death toll. The government and NHS are now responsible for just under 70,000 deaths. Unnecessary and avoidable deaths. Shame of the nation.
Do not panic. Do not worry. Do not follow government advice.