This is something about which we have been writing for months and now with every passing day, there is an increasing body of evidence that shows lockdown was not only ineffective – and therefore unnecessary – but also that it made the situation worse. Worse as in it was responsible for the deaths of thousands, now quite possibly tens of thousands, of people in the United Kingdom. In comparison, going outside into sunlight, with its ability to synthesise vitamin D saves lives.
The latest factor in the spotlight is ironically, given the etymology of the coronaviridae family and orthocoronavirinae sub-family terms, the sun. Well, sunlight to be precise: SARS-CoV-2 really doesn’t like it one little bit. Exposure to direct sunlight is harmful to the SARS-CoV-2 virions, reducing their T1/2 half-life (for more information on the differences between infectability and detectability, read our previous commentary here). In essence, sunlight is to SARS-CoV-2 what those blue light insect killers in kitchens are to flies.
Remember that SARS-CoV-2 crowded out influenza A to be this year’s winter or seasonal flu, for two principal reasons: firstly, coronaviruses come out in the winter months when it is, yes you’ve guessed it, darker and with fewer hours of sunlight. This means they have to co-exist with all the other seasonal viruses such as seasonal or winter flu which leads onto the second reason: SARS-CoV-2 wanted to survive more than A(H1N1)/A(H3N2) and so thrived by way of more effective transmission, in particular its virulence through colonisation and immunoevasion. Effectively it wanted the gig more than A(H1N1)/A(H3N2) and through its natural selection became this year’s seasonal or winter flu.
Earlier this year a group of researchers analysed the impact on SARS-CoV-2 of temperature, humidity and latitude. They based their research on the period November 2018 – March 2019, i.e. the 2018 northern hemisphere winter (before you ask, the data to show winter 2019 wasn’t yet available). You can read their results here but in summary they found that SARS-CoV-2; “has established significant community spread in cities and regions only along a narrow east-west distribution roughly along the 30-50’north latitude corridor at consistently similar weather patterns (5-11’C and 47-79% humidity).”
Further thanks to Professor John Nicholls, professor of pathology at Hong Kong University, for his visualisation. He used data from the wonderfully-named European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (presumably there actually is both a European Centre for Short-Range Weather Forecasts and a European Centre for Long-Range Weather Forecasts), based upon the 30-year average temperatures for the period of observation. This is the result:
Yup, ALL of the northern hemisphere countries with the highest death rates (which have a very high positive correlation with the highest death rates for all countries) sit in the upper yellow band. While the graphic has certain countries highlighted, you could add the UK, Belgium, Spain, France and the rest of the North American states and it would remain valid. This specific temperate band is ideal in winter months for SARS-CoV-2.
What is even more interesting is what validates further both the research and the mapping: Brazil’s late arrival at the party, more than three months after peak infections & two months after peak deaths in the northern hemisphere. Latin America was doing really well at first but as things got better in the northern hemisphere, the continent saw a dramatic increase in infections. The fact that the northern hemisphere is moving into the warmer temperature & longer hours of sunlight as the southern hemisphere is moving into cooler temperatures and shorter hours of sunlight is no coincidence.
If you paid attention in geography, you’ll have noticed that the two yellow bands are above & below the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn respectively. As the northern hemisphere moved into spring and then summer, SARS-CoV-2 was naturally going to decline as the environmental conditions changed against it.
A virus has a lifecycle that is remarkably consistent and it will run its course regardless. It certainly isn’t influenced by lockdown and here is where lockdown – once again – made things worse: as humans, we create vitamin D through photosynthesis, where exposure to sunlight stimulates the production of vitamin D in general and in particular an enzyme called endothelial nitric oxide synthase. We’ve been doing this for hundreds of millions of years along with all land vertebrates. Homo sapiens evolved with exposure to UV-light from the sun, broadly following temperate bands as our predecessors migrated across landmasses following seasonal hunting patterns.
Linking this back to the geography, why have most countries in Africa fared so well in dealing with SARS-CoV-2? Most are not developed economies and do not have access to advanced healthcare & medications, so why are they not suffering higher mortality rates?
Quite simply, they are closer to the equator and within the perimeters represented by the upper & lower yellow bands on the above map and in the main are also within the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. Their natural levels of vitamin D are >30ng/ml and in many instances around 40ng/ml. The relevance of this factor is compounded when you look at vitamin D levels in Europe or more precisely the lack of them.
A report published by the European Journal of Endocrinology in April 2019 showed that (our emboldening for emphasis): “vitamin D deficiency (<20 ng/ml) is common in Europe…it occurs in <20% of the population in Northern Europe, in 30–60% in Western, Southern and Eastern Europe. Severe deficiency (<12 ng/ml) is found in >10% of Europeans.”
An even earlier report from 2014 stated: “the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency [<25 ng/ml] may be more common in populations with a higher proportion of at-risk groups, and/or that have low consumption of foods rich in vitamin D (naturally rich or fortified) and low use of vitamin D supplements.”
In other words, countries with high levels of vitamin D deficiency that are in the specific temperate range for SARS-CoV-2 will come out worst. Which they all have.
So if you were a government in one of these high risk countries, what would you do if you wanted to help your population deal with SARS-CoV-2? How would you give them at least a fair chance of fighting off a virus that even for an average person, is well within their innate immune system’s capability?
Would you tell them;
A. to go outside as much as they could, to get as much sunlight as is available and to use parks and public spaces to soak up all that UV-light that not only knocks the crap out of SARS-CoV-2 virions but also reduces vitamin D deficiency?
or
B. to stay indoors and only allow them outside once a day for a minimal period of exercise, regardless of whether or not the sun was shining?
Sadly the deathmongers chose B and that is a major contributor to why the United Kingdom and other European countries have the highest mortality rates on the planet.
Lockdown deprived millions of people of regular, daily exposure to sunlight and therefore vitamin D photosynthesis as they went about their daily activities. Instead, the deathmongers made everyone stay indoors, which of course caused low viral dosage to becomes higher viral dosage whereupon they went into hospital, got sicker there and died.
We are not nutritionists but a healthy combination of vitamins B12, C & D plus zinc and selenium are all crucial to keeping your immune system effective in general and particularly effective against SARS-CoV-2.